GROUND ZER0, New York, N.Y.--Feb 3, 2004 -- America's Central Intelligence Agency (C.I.A.) is in the throes of a credibility crisis--it just can't figure out how to predict the actions of the Beast of Terror.   

        The problem, according to NY Times editorial writer David Brooks in his op-ed today titled, The C.I.A.--Method and Madness, is "scientism."      
         Brooks makes the point that the C.I.A. is a data machine.  Like a scientist, it accumulates tons of information, sifts and studies it mechanically, and then uses cold, unemotional, non-politically pressured processes to arrive at a "scientific" answer based on probabilities of a cause and effect.
          His point is that this "rational" approach to studying and predicting Terrorism doesn't work because Terrorism is largely "irrational," driven by human rather geopolitical devices.
          The rationale, for example, of a young woman with two children becoming a suicide bomber and blowing herself up, doesn't fit the "rational" matrix.  Here's what Brooks says:

       The key words appear to be "individual's intuition and imagination."
       The C.I.A., and many citizens, think of Terrorism in conventional terms, similar to the Nazi movement in World War II.    But that is a mistake.   The Nazi movement was a national desire, similar to that of Rome when it sought to conquer the world.
        Terrorism is amorphic.   It has no defined shape, no specific location, no clearly defined political ambition.
        It is a Beast.

        When one looks at Terrorism, one has to look at it like a rabid Beast, one with a stench that gags the hardiest stomach, one with fiery eyes who stalks silently in the shadows of all our minds, eager to leap out and strangle us with fingers of Fear, pummel us with fists of Intimidation, and rake us with infected claws of Complacency that drive us into a sense of individual powerlessness where we abdicate our personal right to stand up and fight the oppression and tyranny Terrorism casts upon all in his path.
        One might think such a view is nothing more than a classic paranoid approach, turning a society or individual into a quivering bowl of Jell-O whose head jerks at the slightest sound, whose hair bristles when a cloud covers the sun and who sweats and blinks so ferociously he or she cannot walk a straight line.
        This would be true if Terrorism had no antidote.   
        But it does.
        It's called Vigilance.
        Vigilance is the intuitive ability of an individual or society to counter Fear with Courage, to balance Intimidation with Conviction, and to neutralize Complacency (powerlessness) with the power to take Right Actions that benefit the Children's Children's Children.
        Vigilance defies scientific analysis, just as Terrorism does.   Vigilance is the rational, innate, human force that clashes with Terrorism's irrational nature.
        It starts with each individual recognizing there is a Beast of Terror within us all, who, unless managed and controlled with Vigilance, will mature in a variety of forms.
        Each of us has over the course of our lives, faced the Beast of our own Terror many times.  We have all experienced degrees of Fear, Intimidation and Complacency, the Triads of Terrorism.
       And, we have all countered them with Courage, Conviction and Right Actions for future generations.

       The simplest form of this is learning to swim.   The child or adult who doesn't know how to swim looks at the water as a Beast.   It makes one afraid to think of being alone in it, unsure of one's ability to "swim" to safety.    The lack of support for one's body is Intimidating, for the water seems to be liquid hands eager to suck one under.
       Finally, screwing up one's Courage in the face of Fear, the non-swimmer leaps into the pool or pond.    Fighting the Fear, Intimidation and sense of Complacency (powerlessness) over the water, the novice starts to paddle and kick until finally he or she makes it to the edge of the pool or shore.
       Commonly, there is another person--a parent or guardian--standing nearby, coaching the individual, saying "You can do it.   Move your arms.  Kick.  I'm here.   You can do it."
       One form of Terrorism is conquered when the child learns he or she has the power to swim.   The lesson is the Beast of Terror lived in the child's mind, not in the water.  And, to conquer the Beast, it took a Sentinel of Vigilance, a Parent of Vigilance, a Guardian of Vigilance, a Coach of Vigilance, to help the child overcome the Fear, Intimidation and Complacency necessary to overpower the Beast's Fear, Intimidation and Complacency.
      The same is true regarding our national and international security.

      David Brooks says he gives more credence to what an individual thinks is the next Terrorist move than he does all the C.I.A. analysts because the rational formulas they use do not predict irrational acts.
      Who would think that 18 Terrorists could hijack simultaneously four commercial aircraft and fly them into America's greatest sources of power--the World Trade Center, the Pentagon, and possibly the White House or Congress (referring to Flight 93 that crashed in Pennsylvania, its final destination thwarted by the passengers.)  As Brook says: 

        Terrorism isn't a scientific problem.  It is a human one.   Since Nine Eleven, each citizen in America has been introduced to a new life style--the irrational.    The false belief that we are free from the long arm of the Beast of Terror has been shattered.   Just yesterday, a deadly powder was discovered in a letter sent to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist.  

      But that is only the tip of the iceberg.   The real Terrorism exists when a child rushes home to tell his or her parents about getting a good grade at school and finds a cold reception, or is told in harsh words:  "Don't bother me now, I'm busy on the phone."
       Small?  Insignificant?
       To some, it may seem inconsequential.  But, to a Parent of Vigilance, it is a crime.  It allows the Beast of Child Terror to rush out of the bushes, to shout in the child's ear:  "See, I told you.  You're not loved.  They don't care about you.  Come with me.  Let me guide you."
       Adults are easy victims too.   At work, when the boss laughs at your new idea, or, when layoffs are impending and you feel the Fear of being ousted and begin to grovel to seek approval for all your deeds, you surrender your life to the Beast of Terror.   Your stomach becomes a volcano.   Your hands tremble wondering if the envelope on your desk contains a pink slip.   Your armpits gush when you are called into the boss's office.
       These "Increments of Terrorism" build up.  Sometimes they explode in unexpected ways through anger and rage aimed at our loved ones.   We become confused and reach for a drink or take a pill, trying to quell the Beast, to drug it, to suppress its dominance over our thoughts.
       That's where the Pledge of Vigilance comes into play.   If we think of Terrorism as we would a rabid Beast within us, waiting to be given slack on its leash, we see it from an irrational viewpoint.
       To attack the Beast, we must first think like it.  Irrational recognition of the Beast Within us all conditions us for rational management of it.    
       We realize the rational management for irrational Fear is Courage, and the rational management for irrational Intimidation is rational Conviction, and, for irrational Complacency is rational Right Actions that benefits future generations.

         The C.I.A. works from the rational to the rational.   It is not structured to think in irrational terms, for the unpredictable cannot be predicted.
        But human nature can.
        Human nature includes the presence of the Beast.    In a rage of jealousy or anger, a wife can kill a husband, or a husband kill a wife.  It happens frequently.
        Wrapped in the scaly arms of the Beast of Terror, a parent can lash out at a child and abuse it verbally or physically.  A boss can spew venom at an employee as he or she feels the onerous pressure of performance threatening his or her stability.
        All of us can turn into a Beast in the snap of a finger.
        Yet, we do not recognize that part of our nature, for if we did, we would all take the Vow of Vigilance.   If we were perspicacious about our base human nature, we would check it with its antidote each morning, and balance it throughout the day when our minds and bodies were put to the pressure test.  We would learn to shift our thoughts from those that induce Terrorism to those that were Vigilant.
        When we were faced with a Fear Thought, we would say:  "Stop Thought!"  And we would seek its counterpart, "Courage."  We would take three deep breaths and leash our Beast.   If we felt an Intimidation Thought we would also say, "Stop Thought!" and let our Conviction as person, our stature as a responsible adult or child, break through the footprints of the Beast and rise above the sense we were less than, not as worthy as, not as deserving as those whose shadow cast palls upon us.
        And when we felt Complacency Thoughts, that sense of powerless that we were simple grains of sand of a huge beach, we would say again, "Stop Thought!"  We would think through the irrational sense of powerlessness and to the Right Actions we need to take that benefit future generations.  We would see our children looking up at us, and their children, urging us to do what was right in the face of sacrificing our false sense of security by remaining silent, inert.
          Vigilance would teach us that we can predict the outcome of Terrorism.  We would become invincible to its power, because we would play to its goal of overwhelming us with Fear, Intimidation and Complacency.
          What David Brooks suggests in his editorial is that our intelligence community is ill equipped to deal with irrational behavior.
         To follow that thinking through suggests we are more vulnerable than ever because the front line--the Sentinels of Vigilance we count on are both blind and deaf. 

        The truth is that no government, no single group of employees, can protect an individual or family from the Beast of Terror.
         Only we, the Citizens of Vigilance, can do that.
         Terrorism is not an external force as we tend to think of it.  It is not about suicide bombers or planes smashing into buildings.
         It is about how we deal with it.   It is about harnessing our own Beasts of Terror so that when an outside force tries to overpower us, or our children, we do not allow its "irrational" nature to drive us into "irrational" reaction.
         The key solution to defending our nation from Terrorism begins with taking the Pledge of Vigilance, and practicing the Principles of Vigilance daily.   It starts with recognizing not the Beast Without, but the Beast Within.  When we recognize our own "irrational" behavior, and manage it with "rational" Vigilant Thoughts and Actions, we drive the Beast away.

       All Terrorists are bullies.  And, when they realize we will not be bullied, and that we are committed to teach our children not to be bullied, to stand up to their own Beasts, Terrorism will retreat from our land, and all other lands.
         Be your own C.I.A.   Take the Pledge of Vigilance.   Fight the "irrational" with the "rational."   Fight Terrorism with Vigilance, the kind of Vigilance that has helped the human being evolve for thousands of years beyond the Beasts, but may have forgotten to apply to their daily lives.

Feb. 2-Wonder Why So Many Died On 9/11?  Look At Iran!